CMS projects over 16% drop in Medicare Advantage premiums as open enrollment begins on Oct. 15
The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) has revealed its projections for Medicare Advantage premiums in 2027, showing they’re expected to fall by over 16%. Further, the agency believes prescription drug expenses associated with the privatized Medicare program will drop by an average of 38% heading into next year.
Currently, CMS said the “weighted average monthly premium” for all Medicare Advantage plans—including those that cover special needs—is $14.37 a month. In 2027, that number is expected to drop to around $12.00 on average, with plans that include prescription drug coverage factored in.
That reduction in premium factors in all rebates offered by drug developers, which are sometimes linked specifically to certain Medicare Advantage plans. It’s unclear how those will vary patient to patient.
As for Medicare Part D, which typically covers the costs of prescription drugs as an additional buy-in from all Medicare enrollees, it will see a modest increase in premiums, expected to be around a dollar for most enrolled. The average is expected to bump up to $36, whereas in 2026 it was at $35.09.
Remaining supplemental offerings, such as hearing, vision and dental, are expected to remain stable in terms of upfront costs, CMS confirmed.
34 million signups
Total enrollment in Medicare Advantage is expected to remain high in 2027, as more seniors make the switch from the basic government-run coverage plan to ones managed by big insurers like UnitedHealthcare and Humana.
CMS said it estimates that the number of people who will soon be covered by Part C will be around 34 million next year, representing over 47% of all Medicare-eligible seniors. If accurate, that's a slight drop percentage-wise, as data from KFF shows 55% of seniors were enrolled in a Medicare Advantage plan in 2026. CMS did add that it expects its projection to be an undercount, as it’s worked to ensure 99% of all Medicare enrollees have the option to switch to Medicare Advantage next year, with at least one option being available to nearly all Americans over age 65.
For the vast majority (97%), 10 or more options will be available during open enrollment, the agency confirmed.
As for how many plans will be approved for the market, the number won’t be changing much. CMS said 5,553 plans were available in 2026, and in 2027 that number will dip slightly to 5,532.
“Beneficiaries will continue to have a wide range of choices, and approximately eight in 10 Medicare Advantage beneficiaries will be able to remain in their current plan with the same or a lower premium in 2027,” it wrote.
Open enrollment for all Medicare begins Oct. 15 and will run through Dec. 7.
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