10M people will lose their health coverage by 2034, CBO predicts
The One Big, Beautiful Bill Act will cause 10 million Americans to lose their health coverage by 2034, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) said in a newly released analysis.
The report from the CBO—a nonpartisan federal agency that provides economic facts to Congress—comes only weeks after the omnibus spending package was passed by both houses of the legislature and signed into law by President Donald Trump.
Notably, the 10 million figure is 1.8 million less than previous CBO estimates on the bill’s impact. That’s largely because the exact wording of policies that would cut federal funding to Medicaid changed rapidly as it made its way through Congress.
While a cut to provider taxes that fund Medicaid was ultimately included—resulting in an estimated 20% reduction in federal funding to states that administer Medicaid plans—a portion of the act that would have penalized states for offering Medicaid to individuals based on immigration status was ultimately removed from the final wording.
Despite the $191 billion estimated to be cut from Medicaid—and a total reduction of direct federal spending of $1.1 trillion—the CBO said the current budget plan will result in an increase in the national deficit “totaling $3.4 trillion over the 2025–2034 period.”
“That increase in the deficit is estimated to result from a decrease in direct spending of $1.1 trillion and a decrease in revenues of $4.5 trillion,” the agency added.
In short, broad tax cuts present in the bill are not offset by spending reductions, resulting in an increase in the national debt over time.
New hurdles for medical coverage
Medicaid and healthcare spending were a major focus of the CBO’s analysis, including new work requirements that mandate beneficiaries have a certain number of hours of employment, schooling or volunteer work each month to qualify for health coverage.
This alone is expected to decrease federal spending by $326 billion by 2034, the agency said. However, those savings will largely come from enrollees losing benefits. When combined with the reduction of provider tax levies and subsequent spending cuts, the CBO estimates that 10 million more people will join the estimated 26 million who are currently uninsured.
That 26 million figure comes from a study by the Commonwealth Fund, conducted in late 2024.
For more, read the full report from the CBO by clicking here.
Chad is an award-winning writer and editor with over 15 years of experience working in media. He has a decade-long professional background in healthcare, working as a writer and in public relations.