A recent study conducted by the Harvey L. Neiman Health Policy Institute in collaboration with the American College of Radiology’s Data Science Institute has projected the landscape of artificial intelligence medical products in the United States is set for a fivefold expansion by the year 2035. Specifically, the researchers are referring to AI products cleared by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA). The results are published in the Journal of the American College of Radiology. [1]
For their analysis, researchers drew a connection between the influx of new AI products and historical AI venture capital funding. The data, derived from Rock Health's annual reports on available funding data, disclosed a significant growth in annual investment money for all AI applications, surging from $2 billion in 2013 to $13 billion in 2022.
According to the study, medical imaging accounts for 85% of digital health’s venture capital funding. As the amount grows, more of that money is expected to go to AI-related imaging.
According to the researchers, it takes approximately six years for AI innovations to transition from the funding stage to FDA clearance. Based on the funding data from 2022, the research predicts that by 2028, the medical community can anticipate the introduction of 147 new AI products. The study authors aren’t clear on how many of those will be specific to imaging, but it’s expected to be the majority.
“Given the relationship between funding and new AI products, we project there will be 350 new AI products in 2035 corresponding to the 2029 funding level given the lag between funding and approved products,” study co-author Eric Christensen, PhD, research director at Harvey L. Neiman Health Policy Institute said in a statement. “This is a fivefold increase from 69 in 2022.”
If it’s to be assumed that future funding continues along the same linear trajectory established in the past, the study anticipates that funding will reach $30.8 billion in 2029, consequently leading to the series of FDA-approved AI products.
"Artificial intelligence has grown rapidly and is already changing the way healthcare professionals work," study co-author Christopher Treml, of the Data Science Institute, said in the same statement. "Based on this research, we expect that growth to continue accelerating over the next decade and change the field in new and exciting ways as AI products are developed and integrated into practice."
The full study can be read here.
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