If the country avoids slipping into an economic recession over the next few months or even years, it could have the healthcare job market to thank.
The case can be made by the numbers. In the six-month period ending with October, healthcare jobs comprised only 11% of total U.S. employment—but supplied 30% of the uptick in new hires.
The figures are from the Labor Department as reported in The Wall Street Journal Nov. 26.
Healthcare “could serve as a strong job generator for years to come as an aging population and COVID-19 fuel widespread worker shortages and greater needs for healthcare services,” write WSJ economics reporters Gwynn Guilford and Gabriel Rubin.
Other illustrative statistics from the article:
- Healthcare payrolls rose at a 4.2% annualized rate in the three months through October, up from a 3.1% pace in the first quarter.
- Employment outside of healthcare grew at a 1.3% rate in the three months through October, down from 2.4% in the first quarter.
- The U.S. economy added approximately 150,000 jobs in October, and almost all of them were in either healthcare, government or leisure/hospitality. Absent those three sectors, the economy would have had zero net job growth.
In addition, the aging of the U.S. population means healthcare is poised to continue leading all sectors in hiring, Guilford and Rubin point out.
And this trend is “one of the reasons why we may not fall into a recession,” says Loyola Marymount economics professor Sung Won Sohn.
Looked at from the other side of the coin, healthcare is enduring a protracted worker shortage. The deficit will remain “a big part of what supports overall employment growth for quarters to come,” says Rick Rieder, BlackRock’s chief investment officer of global fixed income.
On this point the article also quotes Julia Pollak, chief economist at ZipRecruiter. She tells WSJ that employee turnover has leveled off in most industries while remaining “elevated” in healthcare.
Noah Yosif, a labor economist with the payroll software supplier UKG, says the shortfall of healthcare workers will probably linger for quite some time.
“Demand is expected to be strong over the coming decade,” Yosif says. “However, the real driver of [job growth] will be the number of people choosing to make healthcare roles their career.”
Full article here (behind paywall).
Dave P. has worked in journalism, marketing and public relations for more than 30 years, frequently concentrating on hospitals, healthcare technology and Catholic communications. He has also specialized in fundraising communications, ghostwriting for CEOs of local, national and global charities, nonprofits and foundations.