EHR model accurately predicts six-month care utilization
An online risk model using data from Maine's statewide health information exchange (HIE) predicted the healthcare utilization and needs of patients for a six-month period.
Researchers analyzed a cohort of more than 1.2 million patients for the study published in the Journal of Medical Internet Research. They first looked at healthcare resource utilization retrospectively to develop a predictive model and then that model was integrated into the HIE to forecast patients' resource utilization over the next six months.
Prospectively predicted risks, on either an individual level or a population (per 1,000 patients) level, were consistent with the next six-month resource utilization distributions and the clinical patterns at the population level, according to the study.
"Results demonstrated the strong correlation between its care resource utilization and our risk scores, supporting the effectiveness of our model," the authors wrote. The model and associated online applications "will enable more effective care management strategies driving improved patient outcomes."