Report predicts a shortage of 100,000 healthcare workers by 2028
A group of healthcare consultants is predicting the space will face a major labor shortage by 2028, fueled by an aging population that will increase the demand for care.
According to a new report from Mercer, critical care workers in healthcare organizations will reach a headcount of 18.6 million by 2028. Unfortunately, that will leave hospitals, health systems and clinics around 100,000 workers short of meeting patient care needs, the consultancy firm calculated.
However, factors such as job specifics and geographical location play a major role in the calculation, with some areas of the country projected to fare far worse than others. Ultimately, Mercer predicts, U.S. healthcare will have a surplus of physicians and registered nurses nationwide, but the allocation of labor will complicate the picture. States like New York, New Jersey and Tennessee will experience significant shortages while, California, Texas and Pennsylvania may have too many doctors and nurses, Mercer concluded.
Nurse practitioners will continue to outpace the market, Mercer added. On the opposite end of the spectrum, the labor situation for nursing assistants appears dire: Mercer foresees a deficit of 73,000 nursing assistants alone by 2028, calculated using the current growth rate of 0.1% versus the coming spike in demand.
The rate of new nursing assistants entering the market currently lags far behind nurses and doctors nationwide, the report noted.
Another Great Resignation?
The report authors made sure to remind employers of the devastation brought by the COVID-19 pandemic, during which 100,000 healthcare workers quit their jobs in 2020 and 2021. Much of that staffing deficit has since recovered, and jobs left vacant in 2022 are largely filled. But, regional shortages persist, fueled in part by burnout—and it could cascade into a serious problem if demand suddenly spikes, Mercer argued.
“Given that attrition is often driven by burnout, healthcare systems need to ensure the well-being of existing employees. This can be done by fine-tuning the employee value proposition with respect to pay and benefits, schedule flexibility, career growth opportunities and job satisfaction,” the authors of the report, led by William Self, Global Leader, Workforce Strategy & Analytics at Mercer, wrote.
Self and his co-authors warned a potential spike in demand could fuel another mass-resignation event. Mercer told employers to expect pressure on compensation to retain workers and lure new talent, especially if they’re in an area that’s projected to see a significant shortage of clinicians.
Mercer said the purpose of the analysis is to push business leaders to compensate for upcoming labor shortages, ensuring they’re addressed before any disruption to patient care.
The full report is available from Mercer here.
Chad is an award-winning writer and editor with over 15 years of experience working in media. He has a decade-long professional background in healthcare, working as a writer and in public relations.