Coronavirus will infect 2.5 billion people, kill 53 million by March, AI predicts

According to a new AI simulation, the Wuhan coronavirus could kill 52.9 million people within 45 days—and infect 2.5 billion overall.

The death toll of the disease thus far is believed to be 565, according to a website dedicated to tracking the outbreak. So how did the simulation reach those titanic totals?

James Ross, co-founder of the financial technology company HedgeChatter, built the AI model. He spoke to Forbes about his process.

“I started with day over day growth,” he said, as quoted by Forbes. “[I then] took that data and dumped it into an AI neural net using a recurrent neural network model and ran the simulation ten million times. That output dictated the forecast for the following day. Once the following day’s output was published, I grabbed that data, added it to the training data, and re-ran ten million times.”

If these numbers alarm you—and, well, they should—it’s important to note that the AI model is missing key data. And healthcare workers around the world are focused on the outbreak, which should theoretically help limit its ability to spread.

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Michael Walter
Michael Walter, Managing Editor

Michael has more than 18 years of experience as a professional writer and editor. He has written at length about cardiology, radiology, artificial intelligence and other key healthcare topics.

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Given the precarious excitement of the moment—or is it exciting precarity?—policymakers and healthcare leaders must set directives guiding not only what to do with AI but also when to do it. 

The final list also included diabetes drugs sold by Boehringer Ingelheim and Merck. The first round of drug price negotiations reduced the Medicare prices for 10 popular drugs by up to 79%. 

HHS has thought through the ways AI can and should become an integral part of healthcare, human services and public health. Last Friday—possibly just days ahead of seating a new secretary—the agency released a detailed plan for getting there from here.