UNC, Physicians Foundation tool reveal some shortages of specialists

A tool launched by the Physician Foundation and the Cecil G. Sheps Center for Health Services Research at The University of North Carolina-Chapel Hill reveal shortages of selected specialists and combinations of specialties in some areas of the nation.

However, redistributing the current supply of practitioners or influencing their pathway into practice can allow the country to meet its workforce needs, according to the organizations.

These entities’ FutureDocs Forecasting Tool is an interactive, web-based model that estimates the supply of physicians, use of physician service, and capacity of the physician workforce to meet future use of health services at the sub-state, state and national levels. The model takes into account the concept of plasticity as physicians in different specialties have overlapping scopes of practice. The majority of current national workforce models focus on silo-based projections by physician specialty, according to an announcement.

Some findings extracted from the tool so far include:

• The number of pediatric surgery patient care FTEs is projected to double from 2011 to 2030. This finding contrasts with current concerns about a pediatric surgeon shortage.
• General internal medicine in the U.S. is projected to experience a 12 percent decline in patient care FTEs between 2011 and 2030.
• Between 2014 and 2030, population growth and aging will be more significant contributors to rising healthcare use than the Affordable Care Act’s health insurance coverage expansion.
• By 2030, many specialties that were previously majority male will become over 50 percent female.
• The number of mental health visits exceeds provider capacity in the majority of areas in 2011, and these geographic disparities become more pronounced by 2030

“The FutureDocs Forecasting tool provides the information that states and regions need to plan for ways to train, recruit, retain or redesign the workforce required to meet their population’s healthcare needs,” said Erin Fraher, PhD, director of the Cecil G. Sheps Center for Health Services Research at UNC-Chapel Hill, in a statement.

To learn more about the tool, go here.