Health IT, reform will reduce demand for physicians

Health IT, both on its own and as part of healthcare reform, will result in a significant decrease in the demand for both generalist and specialist physicians, according to a report published in Health Affairs.

If health IT were fully implemented in 30 percent of community-based physician offices, the report estimates the demand for physicians could be reduced by 4 to 9 percent. Also:

• Nurse practitioners and physician assistants could reduce the future demand of physicians by 4 to 7 percent.
• IT-supported delegation from specialist physicians to generalists could reduce the demand for specialists by 2 to 5 percent.
• 5 to 10 percent of real-time "office-based care” could be delivered by providers whose patients are not actually in the physician’s office.
• 5 to 15 percent of care could involve interactions between consumers and providers not only from separate locations, but at different points in time.

“These estimated impacts could more than double if comprehensive health IT systems were adopted by 70 percent of U.S. ambulatory care delivery settings. Future predictions of physician supply adequacy should take these likely changes into account,” wrote lead author Jonathan Weiner, DrPH, professor of health policy and management at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health and director of the Center for Population Health Information Technology, et al.

By 2020 or 2025, as health IT spreads to the majority of care settings, the evidence suggests that efficiency gains will enable physicians to meet the demands of 8 to 15 percent more patients than would be the case without health IT, the report also concluded.

“Arguably, few trends will change the future face of American healthcare as widely as health IT and e-health. It is essential that workforce planning analyses provide policy makers and stakeholders with evidence and ideas that support rational decision-making and preparation for a future that is likely to be dramatically different from the past,” Weiner et al concluded.