Could social media be a whistle-blower for the next disease outbreak?

A study, published in The Journal of Infectious Diseases, found evidence of the early stages of Ebola and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) outbreaks through social media.

Led by Gerardo Chowell, MD, an associate professor of epidemiology and biostatistics at the School of Public Health at Georgia State University, the study tested the reliability of using this alternative to the mathematical models of predicting disease transmissions as a way to predict outbreaks in their early stages when information is scarce.

"Our study offers proof of concept that publicly available online reports released in real-time by ministries of health, local surveillance systems, the World Health Organization and authoritative media outlets are useful to identify key information on exposure and transmission patterns during epidemic emergencies," said Chowell. "Our Internet-based findings on exposure patterns are in good agreement with those derived from traditional epidemiological surveillance data, which can be available after considerable delays."

Researchers tracked and analyzed data from public health authorities and social media during both the 2014 Ebola epidemic in West Africa and the 2015 MERS outbreak in South Korea. Results showed that, by evaluating Internet reports, the presence of Ebola was shared through stories about the disease-affected clusters of families, funeral announcements and hospital exposure.

"Our analysis of the temporal variation in exposure patterns provides useful information to assess the impact of control measures and behavior changes during epidemics," said Chowell and colleagues. "In the absence of detailed epidemiological information rapidly available from traditional surveillance systems, alternative data streams are worth exploring to gain a reliable understanding of disease dynamics in the early stages of an outbreak.”