Study: Health IT to change healthcare, avoid MD shortages

EHR systems and other electronic tools are likely to curb the demand for physicians in the future, according to researchers at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health and The Commonwealth Fund.

For the study, published in Health Affairs, the researchers analyzed recent trends in digital healthcare and reviewed scientific literature and concluded that the proliferation of mobile apps and EHRs will lead to the majority of patients’ interactions with the healthcare system to be digitally mediated.

The study’s lead author, Jonathan Weiner, professor of health policy and management at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School and director of the Center for Population Health Information Technology and colleagues estimate that when EHRs and other e-health systems are fully implemented in just 30 percent of community-based physicians’ offices, doctors will be able to meet the demands of 4 to 9 percent more patients than they can today due to increased efficiency.

When supported by health IT, delegation of care to nurse practitioners and physician assistants could reduce the future U.S. demand for physicians by an additional 4 to 7 percent.

IT also allows for electronic referrals which could reduce demand for specialists by another 2 to 5 percent because specialist physicains will be able to delegate care to general practitioners. And, other health IT such as telemedicine and secure electronic communication between physicians and patients could help address regional doctor shortages by enabling 12 percent of care to be delivered remotely.

More widespread health IT adoption could raise all these percentages, the authors wrote. “When all of these likely effects are added together, it is clear that health IT will help resolve future physician shortages that many believe are around the corner,” Weiner said.

The authors conclude that these changes will impact American healthcare dramatically and the field must prepare appropriately. “It is essential that workforce planning analyses provide policymakers and stakeholders with evidence and ideas that support rational decision-making and preparation for a future that is likely to be dramatically different from the past,” said study co-author David Blumenthal, MD, president of The Commonwealth Fund and the former national coordinator for health IT.