Experts predict melanoma deaths to reduce by 2050

An estimated 10,130 Americans died from melanoma in 2016, according to the Skin Cancer Foundation. With an aging population, this number may actually increase in coming years. However, if new treatments are proven to be effective, experts predict that deaths could drop below historically low rates by 2050.

This data was presented by Alice Koechlin from the International Prevention Research Institute in Lyon, France, at the European Cancer Congress 2017. There, she shared that the people at most risk of dying from melanoma were born between 1900 and 1960, during the time when people were unaware of the effects of exposure to ultraviolet (UV) radiation from sunlight. Though there were some negative effects, health professionals also approved exposure to sunshine in some cases.

"These beliefs were boosted by observations that exposure to ultraviolet light and sunshine could heal some skin infections and rickets, and by the discovery of vitamin D," she said. "It was common for babies and school children to be treated with commercial UV radiation-emitting devices and exposed, unclothed, to the midday sun. This fashion faded in the 1960s as effective treatments, such as vaccines and antibiotics, became available and people became aware that sun exposure and sunburn during childhood were strong risk factors for developing skin cancer in later life."

In order to test if current cancer death rates in Australia, the U.S. and Sweden were due to aging, birth year or the recent introduction of new treatments, Koechlin and her team of researchers produced two statistical models:

1. No available effective treatment for melanoma.

2. Treatment available that resulted in 25 percent reduction in melanoma deaths from 2015 onward, assuming all patients had access to these treatments.

Data suggested that the death of melanoma rates in the U.S. would fall to rates two and half to three times lower than in the peak years, falling to rates that prevailed before 1960. The death rate would fall be 1.6 per 100,000 men, compared to 4 and from 1.7 to less than one per 100,000 women. 

Due to aging, the number of melanoma deaths, may rise between 2030-2035. 

"Our findings clearly show that most of the death toll due to melanoma has been caused by medically-backed exposures to highly carcinogenic UV radiation between 1900 and 1960," Koechlin said. "They also show that UV-protection of children pays off because rates of melanoma death keep going down from around 1960 to the current day as the UV protection of children based on clothing, shading and avoidance of excessive sun exposure has spread in most light-skinned populations, starting in Australia."