During the next decade, physician demand will grow at a faster rate than supply, causing a shortage of primary care and specialty doctors at a time when the health of U.S. citizens is declining and the average age of the population is increasing.
IHS conducted the study for the Association of American Medical Colleges. IHS used a microsimulation modeling approach to determine its findings.
Between 2013 and 2025, physician demand is expected to increase by 11 to 17 percent depending on the scenario. However, by 2025, there will be a 46,100 to 90,400 shortage of physicians, according to the report.
The projected shortfalls by 2025 include between 12,500 and 31,100 primary care physicians and 28,200 to 63,700 non-primary care physicians.
The authors evaluated numerous scenarios, including the increased use of advanced practice nurses, greater use of retail clinics and other settings, delayed retirements for physicians and payment and delivery system changes such as the increased use bundled payments and accountable care organizations. In each case, there will be a significant physician shortage.
“The doctor shortage is real--it’s significant--and it’s particularly serious for the kind of medical care that our aging population is going to need,” AAMC President and CEO Darrell G. Kirch, MD, said in a news release.
Executive Editor
Tim Casey joined TriMed Media Group in 2015 as Executive Editor. For the previous four years, he worked as an editor and writer for HMP Communications, primarily focused on covering managed care issues and reporting from medical and health care conferences. He was also a staff reporter at the Sacramento Bee for more than four years covering professional, college and high school sports. He earned his undergraduate degree in psychology from the University of Notre Dame and his MBA degree from Georgetown University.